Buy side

Muni yields were bumped one to eight basis points, depending on the scale, while UST yields fell three to 10 basis points, with the greatest gains out long.

Tax exemption concerns — though an elimination is unlikely — and the loss of federal stimulus will "most assuredly pull forward delayed issuance, with the first half of 2025 volume to exceed second half volume," said James Welch, a municipal portfolio manager at Principal Asset Management.

The Fed meets this week, but the probability of another cut at Wednesday's meeting seems low amid elevated inflation and growth data, said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Tech stocks suffered on "worries that Beijing is becoming increasingly competitive in the high-stakes artificial intelligence race," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The municipal bond market's initial negative reaction to this month's Southern California wildfires has eased, with secondary spreads starting to tighten.

Investors added $2.028 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending Wednesday, following $251.7 million of outflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

Issuance was led by a $2 billion retail pricing from the University of California in the negotiated market and a $1.2 billion competitive deal from Washington.

There are eight municipal bond interval funds, three of which launched last year, promising fewer liquidity constraints and the potential for higher returns.

Underperforming since the calendar turned, "munis have continued to cheapen over the past three weeks as Treasury returns are about flat for the year while munis are down 0.31%," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Municipals are underperforming USTs month-to-date, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index showing losses of 1.02% versus 0.92% for USTs as of Tuesday, but both are outperforming losses in corporates that are seeing 1.23% losses in January.

"Even though it will be priced to sell, such large supply in one week may be a struggle for the asset class," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

The muni market also faces an elevated new-issue calendar, which may put additional pressure on muni yields. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $17.57 billion.

"It is the first step but that doesn't mean there's a second step," said John Bagley, the MSRB's chief market structure officer.

Tom Greene is retiring after 10 years at Wintrust Wealth Management. He left retirement to work for Wintrust; he also spent 40 years at William Blair and Co.

"'The market environment will likely become a bit more difficult in the coming week, as supply will jump to its highest level in weeks, while dealers are heavier than average," said Mikhail Foux, head of municipal research and strategy at Barclays.

The management team sees opportunity in pockets that other investors avoid, like American Dream, Midwestern private colleges and senior living facilities.

Sizable deals for next week include $1.3 billion of real estate transfer tax revenue bonds from the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority and $996.335 million of second series revenue bonds from the San Francisco International Airport.

The Federal Reserve will be more cautious and slow rate cuts going forward, according to minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released Wednesday.

Pressing issues like the shifts in banking teams at various firms following Citi's exit from the business to major ratings changes make the ranking.

"Further Treasury rate volatility or distractions from more favorable alternatives could at the very least moderate money invested into the municipal bond market," DWS strategists said. However, "these dynamics could create periods of opportunity to buy tax-exempt bonds at attractive yields in 2025."