Jerome Powell

With no policy changes expected, analysts are eagerly awaiting the new Summary of Economic Projections for clues about future monetary policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target again in December but signaled fewer cuts in 2025. There was some dissent. The markets are watching to see if the Federal Reserve pauses its easing cycle in January. Join us at noon, Eastern, on Jan. 30 as Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, recaps and parses the previous day's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

A week ahead of inauguration day, Scott Colbert, executive vice president, director of fixed income and chief economist at Commerce Trust, takes a look at how the Federal Reserve and the economy will fare in President-elect Donald Trump's second run in the White House. Social Media Pitch: X: As we prepare for Trump 2.0, Join us live at 11 a.m. on Jan. 16 to hear Scott Colbert, executive vice president at Commerce Trust, as we discuss the economy and the Fed in a second Trump presidency. FB/LI: As we prepare for Trump 2.0, Join us live at 11 a.m. on Jan. 16 to hear Scott Colbert, executive vice president at Commerce Trust, discuss the economy and the Fed in a second Trump presidency. The relationship between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been contentious, but Trump has backed away from suggestions he'd fire the chair.

Technicals could "break down" if there is a potential decline in risk assets or rising unemployment, particularly in white-collar jobs, said Jeff Timlin, a managing partner at Sage Advisory.

For municipals, Wednesday "marks a crucial step forward, perfectly aligned with the current risk landscape," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer for 16Rock Asset Management.

Given the Fed's reluctance to "surprise markets or take actions that could be perceived as overtly political," Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick said, "we find it hard to believe that anything other than 25 bp is the likely outcome for the upcoming FOMC meeting."

The calendar next week largely continues "the elevated pace of primary market volume seen since May, against a backdrop of broadly supportive fund flows (LSEG inflows for eight consecutive weeks), somewhat better dealer positions (although still heavy), mid-August reinvestment to spend, but lighter late summer attendance," said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

It was a good day for munis with larger deals clearing the primary and secondary trading showing a more constructive tone with triple-A yields falling a few basis points amid a stronger session for all markets.

"Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high," Powell said in the text of a speech Friday at the U.S. central bank's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

After holding at its last meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee may decide to raise rates again in July.