FOMC

Pressures from inflation concerns and broader rising rates weigh on munis in the second week of 2022.

The Federal Reserve expects Omicron to fizzle in weeks, and while pandemic-related risks remain, the economy is strong and the Fed needs to address inflation and could liftoff as soon as March, Bullard says.

ICI reported $1.101 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the last week of 2021. Refinitiv Lipper figures on Thursday may give a sense of investor sentiment for week one of 2022.

Until supply comes, market participants appear to be content to sit back and let the calendar flip to a new year without making any big moves.

Despite outside pressures, municipal fundamentals are strong with improving credit pictures, issuers flush with federal cash and the ongoing supply-demand imbalance.

It marked the 40th straight week of positive flows into the long-term funds and brought the total inflows for this year near $82 billion. Exchanged-traded funds saw $168M of inflows.

Triple-A yield curves were unchanged on the day and mostly have not budged but a basis point in spots since the end of November.

Coming off last week's $19.5 million influx of weekly new issues, supply this week is lower as the market watches the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Thirty-day visible supply drops to $13.54 billion with still a large chunk of new issues to be priced Wednesday and Thursday.

The weaker-than-expected employment report sent U.S. Treasury yields lower and equities sold off. Munis did what they've been doing — mostly ignored it.

Refinitiv Lipper reported a significant drop in municipal bond mutual fund inflows at $36 million in the latest week, a signal the volatility of other markets may be creeping in. High-yield saw $53 million of inflows.

Powell says the FOMC will consider ramping up tapering when more information about Omicron and its impacts are known, further flattening the UST yield curve.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly was considered by the Biden administration for a seat on the U.S. central bank’s board and she declined, according to two people familiar with the matter.

President Joe Biden met separately with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard at the White House on Thursday as he considers who will lead the central bank next year.

As the Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss monetary policy, Gary Pzegeo, head of fixed income at CIBC Private Wealth will discuss his thoughts about what will come from the meeting.

After the FOMC made taper official, high-grade benchmark yields ended the day one to three basis points better while USTs ended the day higher after an up-and-down trading session that moved the 30-year back above 2%.

President Joe Biden said he’ll announce soon his choice of nominees for chair and other vacancies on the Federal Reserve, amid a scandal over stock trades by central bank officials.

The FOMC will likely take the opportunity to profess its reliance on data to decide liftoff and reiterate the threshold for a rate hike remains higher than for taper.

Jerome Powell is widely expected to be renominated to a second term as Federal Reserve chair, but his chances have been modestly dented by the revelations of stock trading by some senior Fed officials in 2020, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Though monetary policy has been in the forefront, at mid-month the tone changed with global inflation outlooks and federal infrastructure and social package in flux.