FOMC

The 75 basis point hike, prompted partly by hotter-than-expected inflation data, is the largest since 1994.

Triple-A yield curves rose five to eight basis points. Volatility somewhat eased Tuesday as investors took pause ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The 25-basis-point move to higher yields is the largest one-day change in triple-As since March 2020 when COVID began roiling markets. Munis could not ignore a continued selloff in UST led by inflation and recession concerns.

While a document search will not turn up the dreaded word “stagflation,” the minutes mention on multiple occasions that the FOMC sees risk to growth skewing toward the downside, and inflation risk to the upside.

Investors will be greeted Monday with an increase in supply with the new-issue calendar estimated at $6.488 billion, led by $1 billion-plus of GOs from Maryland in the competitive market.

Investors will be greeted Tuesday with a decrease in supply with the new-issue calendar estimated at $2.691 billion in $1.786 billion of negotiated deals and $904.9 million of competitive loans.

Municipals improved for the fifth session in a row with 10- and 30-year triple-A yields falling 30 basis points since Thursday. Connecticut priced $1 billion-plus of GOs and saw yields lowered in a repricing.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said she expects the central bank to raise interest rates to 2% by August, with the further course of tightening being guided by how surging inflation cools off.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said policy makers could potentially pause interest-rate increases in September after hiking by a half point at each of their next two meetings.

The U.S. economy needs supply-side interventions rather than interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve that will fail to bring inflation under control, said Nobel laureate economist Joe Stiglitz.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said the “rough week in the equity markets” was not surprising, partially reflecting the central bank’s policy tightening, and doesn’t alter her support for half-point interest-rate hikes to cool inflation.

If the Federal Reserve raises its key interest rate somewhat above what it thinks is a “neutral” level for the economy and stops there, that should help bring inflation down from current elevated levels, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said.

The U.S. economy won’t be able to avoid a bout of stagflation and markets have yet to tune into the risk of a significant slowdown in growth, said Mohamed El-Erian.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he supports the central bank’s plan to raise interest rates in half-percentage-point steps at coming meetings.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said no one should doubt the U.S. central bank’s resolve to curb the highest inflation in decades, including pushing rates into restrictive territory if needed.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the current Fed leaders were too slow to react to surging U.S. inflation and as a result face a period of stagflation, or a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation.

“Unless there are some big surprises, I expect it to be appropriate to raise the policy rate another 50 basis points at each of our next two meetings,” Mester said Friday.

The Senate voted to confirm Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair on Thursday, trusting him to tackle the highest inflation to confront the country in decades.

During his confirmation hearing, Jefferson’s experience and commitment to follow the Fed’s limited mandates had earned Republican plaudits, while Democrats have praised his research on poverty and the diversity he’ll add to the board.

Outflows continue with the Investment Company Institute reporting $6.167 billion pulled from muni bond mutual funds in the week ending May 4, up from $5.371 billion of outflows in the previous week.