FOMC

Investors pulled $229.263 million out of muni bond mutual funds in the latest week, versus the $635.177 million of outflows the prior week, according to Refinitiv Lipper. High-yield continues to see inflows.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said the central bank should raise interest rates "a little" above 3% by the end of the year to cool inflation, pushing back against investor bets that officials would then reverse course.

The short end was hammered in the secondary with large blocks of high-grades showing big swings to higher yields while the rest of the curve wasn't spared the damage and triple-A yields rose by seven to 16 basis points.

Two Federal Reserve officials responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn't change the U.S. central bank's path toward even higher interest rates this year and next.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors poured in $1.589 billion into muni bond mutual funds in the week ending August 3, the highest level since November.

The Federal Reserve is committed to cooling inflation and needs to raise interest rates to a little above 4% to ease demand, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors pulled $246 million out of muni bond mutual funds in the week ending July 27 compared to the $602 million of outflows in the previous week.

St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard said he favors a strategy of "front-loading" big interest-rate hikes, and he wants to end the year at 3.75% to 4%, while his Richmond counterpart, Thomas Barkin, said the central bank was committed to lowering inflation and a recession could happen.

Federal Reserve officials said they want strong evidence that the hottest inflation in four decades is on a sustainable downward path before declaring victory in their fight against it.

The day after the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting we will analyze the increase and the signals about what rate hikes may be coming.

The large primary was led by two $700-plus million of revenue bonds from the Port of Seattle and the Georgia Ports Authority.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank is committed to doing what’s necessary to bring down demand in order to reach policy makers’ 2% long-term inflation goal, a target that remains far off.

Municipals will end July with positive returns across all sectors. The Bloomberg Municipal Index shows a 2.49% return in July, moving year-to-date losses lower to 6.71%.

Total July volume was $25.598 billion in 520 deals versus $37.573 billion in 1,013 issues a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he was concerned the Federal Reserve is still engaging in “wishful thinking” about how much it will take to bring inflation down from four-decade highs.

Investors added $236.491 million to municipal bond mutual funds, per Refinitiv Lipper data, versus the $698.782 million of outflows the week prior. High-yield saw inflows hit nearly $550 million.

Municipals are poised to end July in the black. Demand for muni product has been strong this summer, with analysts expecting supportive market technicals through August with a likely continuation of positive performance.

With the Fed committed to fighting inflation with aggressive rate hikes, fewer issuers want to take the risk with taxable advance refundings.

Investors sit on the sidelines, waiting to see how much the Fed will hike rates. The consensus appears to be another 75 basis point rate hike, though a full point hike could be on the table.

With the Fed rate decision coming this week, issuers are sitting on the sidelines in both primary and secondary Monday with little changed yield curves.