FOMC

The Federal Reserve will be more cautious and slow rate cuts going forward, according to minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released Wednesday.

Investors pulled more from municipal bond mutual funds in the final reporting week of 2024, but high-yield reverted to inflows to close out the year, adding to the sector's outperformance overall.

Although a new administration means policy uncertainty, most analysts see the economy growing above trend next year, although inflation will remain a concern.

While municipals have outperformed USTs on the whole in 2024, they will close December with losses. How taxables perform in early 2025 coupled with macroeconomic and Washington policy uncertainty have municipal market participants on edge for what lies ahead.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds target again in December but signaled fewer cuts in 2025. There was some dissent. The markets are watching to see if the Federal Reserve pauses its easing cycle in January. Join us at noon, Eastern, on Jan. 30 as Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, recaps and parses the previous day's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

Analysts are unsure what the Federal Open Market Committee will do with monetary policy in 2025. The panel projects two rate cuts, but some analysts expect more, and others see fewer.

As the market prepares for 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty around what the new administration will mean for the macroeconomic environment and interest rates, the latter of which may be impacted by policy around the deficit, said Steve Shutz, portfolio manager and director of tax-exempt fixed income at Brown Advisory.

A week ahead of inauguration day, Scott Colbert, executive vice president, director of fixed income and chief economist at Commerce Trust, takes a look at how the Federal Reserve and the economy will fare in President-elect Donald Trump's second run in the White House. Social Media Pitch: X: As we prepare for Trump 2.0, Join us live at 11 a.m. on Jan. 16 to hear Scott Colbert, executive vice president at Commerce Trust, as we discuss the economy and the Fed in a second Trump presidency. FB/LI: As we prepare for Trump 2.0, Join us live at 11 a.m. on Jan. 16 to hear Scott Colbert, executive vice president at Commerce Trust, discuss the economy and the Fed in a second Trump presidency. The relationship between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been contentious, but Trump has backed away from suggestions he'd fire the chair.

Analysts are confident the Fed will lower rates at this week's meeting, but their views on what next year holds don't share the same consensus.

Donald Trump discussed various items related to the Fed and its independence and stated he would not nominate Jerome Powell for another term as chair. Join us on Nov. 15 at 2 p.m., Eastern, as Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, discusses what a Trump presidency may mean for the Fed.