New York City Comptroller William Thompson Jr. last week added to the drumbeat of dreary fiscal projections for the city with an analysis of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s proposed budget and four-year financial plan.
“During the coming months, the lingering effects of the credit crisis and housing slump could produce a prolonged period of tepid growth,” Thompson said in a press release.
The comptroller projected that the city’s financial sector — which he said accounts for less than 10% of the city’s employment but more than 30% of wages and salaries — will likely see a net decline of between 15,000 to 25,000 jobs from August 2007 through March 2009.
The city added 14,100 payroll jobs in the first four months of 2008 but has seen little growth since, the report said. Whereas the mayor’s budget projects a net loss of 10,700 jobs in calendar 2008, Thompson projects a gain of 3,800. However, the comptroller projects a loss of 49,800 jobs in the city in calendar 2009, 3,500 more than Bloomberg projected for that year. Net job growth is projected to resume in calendar 2010, according to the report.
The prepayment of debt service from current-year surpluses has reduced the fiscal 2010 projected budget gap to $2.86 billion from $4.2 billion, the report said. Annual debt service will rise from $4.95 billion in fiscal 2008 to $6.57 billion in fiscal 2012, a $1.62 billion increase. As percentage of local tax revenues, debt service will rise from 11.8% in fiscal 2008 to 15.2% in fiscal 2012.