CHICAGO — Nonprofit health care providers could see a drop in patient volume as the sector adjusts to a business model that emphasizes keeping people out of hospitals as a result of the new federal health care law, Standard & Poor’s analysts said here Monday during the agency’s Health Care and Transportation Ratings roundtable.

“We are at the front edge of a restructuring of the sector’s business model and volume is where it’s starting to show itself,” said analyst Martin Arrick. “It feels like there’s going to be a real shake-up in the industry in the two to five years if reform moves ahead as planned.”

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