Richmond Fed: Retail Retreat Slows: Update

NEW YORK – “Service sector activity remained soft in September,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond service-sector activity survey, released today, “The ongoing decline in retail sales slowed this month, and shopper traffic was down only slightly compared to a month earlier. In contrast, revenues dropped sharply at services firms. However, survey respondents remained optimistic about demand for their products and services over the next six months.”

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The indexes are the percentage of responding firms reporting increase, less the percentage reporting a decrease.

Overall, the service sector revenues index widened to negative 12 in September from negative 8 in August, while the number of employees index improved to negative 7 from negative 24, the average wage index rose to positive 4 from negative 9, and the expected product demand during the next six months index held at 17.

By sector, the retail area excluding services firms reported the sales revenues index jumped to negative 6 in September from negative 35 in August, the number of employees index narrowed to negative 11 from negative 37, while the average wages index jumped to positive 3 from negative 13. The inventories index widened to negative 34 from negative 26, while the big-ticket sales index improved to negative 32 from negative 51. The shopper traffic index rose to negative 3 from negative 37, while expected product demand during the next six months slid to 16 from 19.

For services firms excluding retail, the revenues index was negative 18, down from positive 6 last month, while the number of employees index gained to negative 9 from negative 20, and the average wage index reversed to positive 1 from negative 7 the prior month. The expected product demand during the next six months index dipped to 18 from 19.

The current price trend for the two sectors together rose to 0.21 in September from 0.20 in August, while falling to 0.71 from 0.90 for retail alone and narrowing to negative 0.05 from negative 0.12 for services, excluding retail.

The expected price trend index for the two sectors together grew to 0.72 in September from 0.62 in August, while decreasing to 1.22 from 1.50 for retail alone and climbing to 0.49 from 0.26 for services, excluding retail.

All firms surveyed are located within the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia.


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