Puerto Rico’s Economic Activity Index added evidence of economic weakness in November.
The Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico released the November index value number, which was 115.1, down 0.4% from October and 6.8% from November 2019.
The index value had gone up on a month-to-month basis for four consecutive months before November’s decline. The index has also declined compared to a year earlier in every month since March.
Outside of the months following Hurricane Maria and earlier this year, the last time the index was at the November index value of 115.1 was 1988. The index is now down about 26% from its peak in the winter of 2004-2005.
The November index decline is consistent with the picture of island economic weakness found in the United States Bureau for Labor Statistics employment surveys.
The bureau’s household survey showed Puerto Rico employment declined from September to October and from October to November. It’s employer survey for nonfarm employment indicated that island employment declined to November from October. Both survey statistics were seasonally adjusted.
Puerto Rico bondholders and the Puerto Rico Oversight Board have paid attention to economic indicators to argue that the government can afford a more or less generous restructuring.
