Puerto Rico's employment situation is getting worse or significantly better, depending on which U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics survey you believe.
On Tuesday the bureau reported in its Local Area Unemployment statistics survey that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate had plunged to 12.4% in January from 13.7% in December. This is the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since September 2008. The number of employed in January increased 1.3% compared with the number in December.
The Bureau's Current Employment Statistics release showed a 1% drop in employment in January from December. The difference stems from the way the numbers are collected. The Local Area numbers are based on a survey of households, while the Current Employment figures come from a survey of employers.
The household survey showed the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in January fell 9.7% from December. On a year-over-year basis the seasonally adjusted number of employed was essentially even, with just 69 fewer people holding jobs in January than in January 2014. This was the first month since September 2012 when the household survey showed the year-over-year figure for total jobs either even or above a year earlier.
The household survey also showed total employment increased for the fourth consecutive month, on a month-to-month basis.
Whereas its household survey is based on interviews with people, the establishment survey is based on firms' reported employment levels. The household survey captures self-employment and agricultural employment, while the establishment survey does not.
In the bureau's last release of the establishment survey it had shown that private sector employment had been up for 13 of the last 14 months. As part of an annual revision process, the bureau has revised data for both the household and establishment surveys going back several years.
The new establishment survey data shows that seasonally-adjusted private sector employment has decreased on a year-over-year basis for 21 months. It shows seasonally adjusted total employment has decreased on this basis for 23 months.
On a month-to-month basis, the establishment survey shows total employment up 3 out of the last 4 months and private sector employment up 4 out of the last 5 months.
Bureau regional economist Martin Kohli said one should not put too much attention to the plunge in the unemployment rate over one month.
Over the course of several months the direction of the household and establishment surveys should be similar, Kohli said. However, over a few months they can move in different directions.
