NEW YORK – Stronger economic growth lies ahead, as the 43 professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised up most of their projections for GDP growth.
The survey says real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.6%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%, with real GDP growing 3.2% in 2011, up from their prediction of 2.5%, and a 3.1% increase in 2012, higher than their prediction of 2.9% three months ago. For 2013, the forecast for real GDP growth is flat at 3.0%.
The survey also offers lower projections for unemployment, with expectations of 9.1% in 2011, 8.5% in 2012, and 7.8% in 2013. The forecasters see non-farm payroll employment growing at a rate of 129,100 jobs per month this quarter and 188,300 jobs per month next quarter.
The forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.5% this quarter, up from the last estimate of 1.6%. The forecasters also predict higher headline PCE inflation of 2.0% this quarter, up from the last survey’s estimate of 1.5%. However, the estimates for the next two years on CPI and PCE inflation were mostly flat.
From now to 2020, the forecasters see headline CPI inflation averaging 2.30% annually, up from 2.20% in the last survey.
