Philadelphia Fed Forecasters See Growth Stable, Labor Improving

The forecast for U.S. economic growth remains nearly the same as it did three months ago, with 3.2% growth expected this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters, released Friday.

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While the 39 forecasters see GDP rising at a 2.7% annual rate this quarter and 3.0% next quarter, the same as it predicted three months ago, the predictions for unemployment rates were cut from the previous survey.

GDP growth forecasts are 2.9% for 2016, 2.7% in 2017, and 2.7% in 2018.

The forecasters now see a 5.4% unemployment rate this year, 5.1% next year, 5.0% in 2017, and 4.9% in 2018. These numbers are 0.2-point to 0.3-point lower than in the prior survey.

Non-farm payroll gains were raised to 269,300 jobs per month this quarter, 233,800 next quarter, 222,000 in the third quarter, and 229,400 in the last quarter of the year.

Inflation, measured by the headline consumer price index number, returns to 2.0% in the last quarter of the year, three months later than previous predictions.


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