April employment data remained dismal: it is too soon to call a turn in the economy. Even if the pace of job losses is somewhat less than in the first quarter, it is still severe and consistent with an ongoing major contraction.

April payrolls plunged 539,000 and revisions to February-March were off 66,000, putting an “adjusted pace” at slightly more than 600,000 jobs lost, compared to an average of slightly more than a 700,000 drop in the first quarter. This is a slowing contraction, but still the worst showing since the early 1980s, and before that in the aftermath of World War II as production adjusted to consumer goods.

Subscribe Now

Independent and authoritative analysis and perspective for the bond buying industry.

14-Day Free Trial

No credit card required. Complete access to articles, breaking news and industry data.