The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October fell to negative 0.18 from a revised positive 0.18 reading in September, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) improved to positive 0.06 from a revised negative 0.02 in September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Wednesday.
In October 2012, the index was negative 0.47, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.46 in that month.
The September index was originally reported as positive 0.14, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as negative 0.03.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was near its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index rose to 0.21 from a revised 0.07 the month before, first reported as 0.05.
The production indicators subtracted 0.01 in the month (compared to a contribution of 0.19 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators subtracted 0.05 in the month, after a 0.11 addition in September, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.15 in the month, after subtracting 0.18 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories contributed 0.03 in the month, after adding 0.07 in September.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by November 26, with data for 45 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 41 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 44 made negative contributions. While 44 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 40 deteriorated from September to October.