The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May gained to positive 0.21 from a revised negative 0.15 reading in April, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) slipped to positive 0.18 from a revised positive 0.31 in April, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In May 2013, the index was 0.00, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.20 in that month.
The April index was originally reported as negative 0.32, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as positive 0.19.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was somewhat above its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, grew to positive 0.23 from a revised positive 0.20 the month before, first reported as positive 0.18.
The production indicators contributed 0.20 from CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.23 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators added 0.10 in the month, after a 0.26 contribution in April, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.12 in the month, after subtracting 0.15 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories was added 0.04 in the month, after a subtraction of 0.03 in April.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by June 19, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 52 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 33 made negative contributions. While 55 indicators were better than the previous month, 17 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 29 deteriorated from April to May.
