The composite index of leading economic indicators soared 0.9% in October, the Conference Board reported Friday.
The coincident index grew 0.2% in October after a revised flat September, while the lagging index rose 0.6% after a revised 0.1% increase in September.
LEI grew a revised 0.1% in September, first reported as 0.2%. The coincident index was originally reported up 0.1%. The lagging index was first reported 0.2% higher. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.6%.
“The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining a little momentum by spring,” said board economist Ken Goldstein. “The lack of confidence has been the biggest obstacle in generating forward momentum, domestically or globally. As long as it lasts, there is a glimmer of hope.”
Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim said: “The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded.”
“Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as sis the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread,” Ozyildirim said. “The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.”