The composite index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in September, the Conference Board reported yesterday.
LEI decreased a revised 0.9% in August, after originally being reported as a 0.5% decline.
The coincident index was down 0.5% after a flat reading in August, originally reported as a 0.1% slip, while the lagging index was down 0.2% after a 0.2% jump in August, originally reported as a 0.2% increase.
The LEI stands at 100.6, the coincident index is 106.0 and the lagging index is at 112.2.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted the LEI would be off 0.2% in the month.
“This summer, before the financial market turmoil intensified, the overall economy was entering a period of decline,” according to the Conference Board labor economist Ken Goldstein. “The extreme volatility in the financial market, and the near freeze-up of credit, will no doubt weaken the economy further. But latest data suggest that conditions in the non-financial economy are not falling apart. Data on hand reflect a contracting economy, but not one in free fall. More likely, what’s going on in the financial market is a stretching of the recovery process — which could take a full year to develop.”
Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in September — real money supply, index of consumer expectations, interest rate spread, index of supplier deliveries, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. Building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, and average weekly manufacturing hours, were negative.
The coincident index saw personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Industrial production, and employees on non-agricultural payrolls were negative.
The lagging index saw positives from: commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales. Average duration of unemployment, change in CPI for services, and change in labor costs per unit of output were negative. The ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income, and average prime rate charged by banks were flat.