Leading Indicators Gain 0.3% in August

The composite index of leading economic indicators grew 0.3% in August, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The coincident index grew 0.1% in August after a revised 0.1% gain in July, originally reported as a 0.3% gain, while the lagging index rose 0.3% after a revised 0.3% increase in July, originally reported as a 0.2% gain.

LEI grew a revised 0.6% in July, originally reported as a 0.5% jump.

The LEI stands at 116.2, the coincident index is at 103.3, and the lagging index is at 110.3. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.

Economists predicted LEI would be up 0.1% in the month.

“There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession,” said board economist Ken Goldstein. “While the chance of that happening remains below 50-50, the odds have certainly increased in recent months.”

“The August increase in the U.S. LEI was driven by components measuring financial and monetary conditions, which offset substantially weaker components measuring expectations,” according to board economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The growth trend in the LEI has moderated and positive and negative contributors to the index have been roughly balanced. The leading indicators point to rising risks and volatility, and increasing concerns about the health of the expansion.”

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