NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 0.1% in July, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI was revised to a 0.3% decline in June, originally reported as a 0.2% drop.
The coincident index rose 0.2% in July, after a revised 0.1% decrease in June, originally reported as unchanged, while the lagging index rose 0.4% after an unrevised 0.1% increase in June.
The LEI stands at 109.8, the coincident index is at 101.4 and the lagging index is at 107.9.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.2% in the month.
“The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “With inventory rebuilding moderating, the industrial core of the economy has moved to a slower pace. There appears to be no change in the pace of the service sector. Combined, the result is a weak economy, with little forward momentum. However, the good news is that the data do not point to a recession.”
“The economy should continue expanding, albeit slowly,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The LEI is growing at its slowest pace since mid-2009 and it has been essentially flat since March. However, the index is still well above pre-recession levels and the CEI remains on a rising trend that began in late 2009. All four coincident indicators have risen over the last six months, with July’s gain in industrial production offsetting the recent weakness in employment.”
Half of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in July: interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods. Index of consumer expectations, building permits, real money supply, and stock prices were negative. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials was flat.
The coincident index saw industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales all rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls was negative.
The lagging index saw positives from change in CPI for services, average duration of unemployment, and change in labor cost per unit of output. commercial and industrial loans outstanding was negative. Ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income, average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
