NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 1.0% in January, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index grew 0.1% in January, after a revised 0.3% gain in December, originally reported as a 0.2% increase, while the lagging index fell 0.1% after a revised 0.2% increase, originally reported as a 0.3% gain.
LEI rose a revised 0.8% in December, originally reported as a 1.0% jump.
The LEI stands at 112.3, the coincident index is at 102.1 and the lagging index is at 107.9. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.3% in the month.
“The economy gained some momentum in late fall, and the latest data suggest that trend will continue,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the last six months is a sharp 3.0%, signaling continued expansion.”
“With January’s slight increase, following two large gains, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to economic expansion in the coming months,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “Falling housing permits and weakening labor market indicators were barely offset by the continued positive contributions of the financial components. The LEI remains on a rising trend, with its growth rate picking up in recent months. However, current economic conditions, as measured by the coincident economic index, while improving slowly, remain weak.”
Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in January: interest rate spread, index of supplier deliveries, stock prices, index of consumer expectations, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, average weekly manufacturing hours and real money supply were negative.
The coincident index saw personal income less transfer payments, employment, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Industrial production was negative.
The lagging index saw positives from change in labor cost per unit of output, and change in CPI for services. Average duration of unemployment, commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
