California revenues are on track to be more than $2 billion less than the April estimates in Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposed budget, the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office said in a report Wednesday.
The LAO said surprise late-April collections are still a possibility that could help buffer the revenue figures.
“But if the current trends hold, [the numbers] suggest that the state’s revenues could be a few billion dollars below the administration’s January forecast in both 2011-12 and 2012-13,” the independent agency said in the note.
The LAO said personal income tax results are likely to be around $3 billion below Brown’s forecasts for fiscal 2012, since year-to-date they already were $807 million short.
April tax collections are an important month for tax collections because income taxes are due during the month.
If revenues continue to fall short of the governor’s projections, Brown will likely make major changes in his May Revise budget.
The Democratic governor is already counting on the Legislature passing a tax measure in November to help relieve education costs in the budget.