FOMC Minutes: Want More Info, Wait for Brexit

Federal Reserve officials wanted to have more information before raising rates, and also see what happened with the Brexit vote, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting June 14-15.

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Labor market conditions slowed, with fewer jobs added, according to the minutes.

"Most judged it appropriate to avoid overweighting one or two labor market reports in their consideration of the economic outlook, but they indicated that the recent slowing in payroll employment gains had increased their uncertainty about the likely pace of improvements in the labor market going forward," the minutes note.

Brexit also played a role in the Fed's decision to not hike rates. "Members noted the considerable uncertainty about the outcome of the vote and its potential economic and financial market consequences."

"Members generally agreed that, before assessing whether another step in removing monetary accommodation was warranted, it was prudent to wait for additional data regarding labor market conditions as well as information that would allow them to assess the consequences of the U.K. vote for global financial conditions and the U.S. economic outlook," the minutes say.

The panel believes rate hikes would depend on incoming data meeting its "expectations for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation."

Talk included a warning from "some" members about not delaying too long. "However, a couple of members underscored that they would need to accumulate sufficient evidence to increase their confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand and that inflation was moving closer to 2 percent on a sustained basis."

"Almost all participants" said the weak May employment report added uncertainty, although they were unwilling to change their employment outlook based on one report.

Most participant see the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate gradually increasing, while "some" said "their forecasts were now consistent with a shallower path than they had expected at the time of the March meeting."

Many members said "the level of the federal funds rate consistent with maintaining trend economic growth-the so-called neutral rate-appeared to be lower currently or was likely to be lower in the longer run than they had estimated earlier."


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