The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February slumped to negative 0.29 from a revised positive 0.41 reading in January, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) narrowed to negative 0.07 from a revised negative 0.12 in January, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In February 2015, the index was negative 0.40, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.13 in that month.
The January index was originally reported as positive 0.28, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as negative 0.15.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was slightly below its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, slipped to negative 0.10 from a revised negative 0.07 reading the month before, first reported as negative 0.11. A year ago, the diffusion index was negative 0.08.
The production indicators subtracted 0.21 from CFNAI in the month (compared to an addition of 0.29 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators added 0.03 in the month, after a 0.19 contribution in January, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.09 in the month, after subtracting 0.05 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories subtracted 0.03 in the month after taking 0.02 from the index in January.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by March 17, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 27 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 58 made negative contributions. While 29 indicators were better than the previous month, 17 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 55 deteriorated from January to February and one was flat.
