The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis said in a report released Wednesday that projected general fund and lottery revenues have been lowered by $35.1 million from the December forecast.
The report said overpaid personal income taxes, resulting in refunds, were a primary reason the forecast had to be revised.
“Excluding 2010 tax reconciliations, fiscal year 2012 has started off well, with the vast majority of revenue line items tracking above estimates,” the state forecast said. Personal income taxes were $1.4 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2012, $35 million, or 2.5%, below the latest forecast.
State economists said the forecast for 2012 revenues will remain “highly uncertain” until the April tax season is over because of Oregon’s dependence on personal income taxes, the report said.
They may fall short because of revisions to state tax withholdings and a reduced income tax rate on the wealthy in 2012, it said.
The forecast also said that the state’s unemployed may begin to lose resources that have helped keep them afloat, such as unemployment insurance, because they have been heavily tapped. That could also hurt income tax collections.