Dallas Fed: Factory Activity Continues to Contract

NEW YORK - “Texas manufacturing activity remained weak in January,” according to the monthly business activity survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, released today.

Most indicators of current factory activity remained at near-record lows, while “most indexes for future activity stayed flat, and respondents continued to report bleak six-month expectations,” The Fed said.

The general business conditions index narrowed to negative 50.5 in January from negative 60.6 in December.

The production index gained to negative 15.4 from negative 33.0, while capacity use improved to negative 19.2 from negative 38.9, the Fed reported. Volume of new orders narrowed to negative 38.4 from negative 50.0, while growth rate of orders index rose to negative 42.3 from negative 47.7.

Unfilled orders climbed to negative 26.0 from negative 32.1 in the prior survey, while the volume of shipments jumped to negative 25.9 from negative 30.3, and delivery times narrowed to negative 7.7 from negative 16.8. The materials inventory index rose to negative 24.1 from negative 17.4, the finished goods inventory improved to negative 12.5 from negative 21.1. Prices paid for raw materials moved to negative 44.2 from negative 50.0, while prices received for finished goods dipped to negative 26.0 from negative 25.0. Wages and benefits gained to 3.8 from 0.9, while the number of employees index slid to negative 29.8 from negative 24.8, and the average workweek index narrowed to negative 23.1 from negative 33.9, and the capital expenditures index dipped to negative 32.7 from negative 24.8.

As for future outlook (six months from now), the general business conditions index narrowed to negative 28.2 from negative 37.1 last month, the production index increased to 2.0 from zero, while capacity use rose to 2.9 from 0.9, the Fed reported. Volume of new orders grew to 0.9 from zero, while growth rate of orders index narrowed to negative 1.9 from negative 5.6.

Unfilled orders narrowed to negative 7.8 from negative 19.5, while the volume of shipments reversed to positive 1.0 from negative 1.8, and delivery times climbed to negative 12.8 from negative 17.8. Materials inventories declined to negative 26.2 from negative 25.0, and the finished goods inventory narrowed to negative 22.4 from negative 23.2.

Prices paid for raw materials fell to negative 24.2 from negative 16.6, while prices received for finished goods rose to negative 18.4 from negative 18.8. Wages and benefits fell to 10.7 from 21.3, the number of employees index widened to negative 24.3 from negative 17.7, while the average workweek index plunged to negative 20.3 from negative 4.7, and the capital expenditures index dropped to negative 27.7 from negative 22.4.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey is a monthly anecdotal survey of manufacturers in Texas. Roughly 80 manufacturers regularly participate in the Dallas Fed survey, which began collecting data in May 2004.

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