NEW YORK – The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose to 97.0 in July from an unrevised 96.7 in June, and is up 9.8% from a year ago, the group announced today.
"The growth rate of the Employment Trends Index slowed sharply in the past three months, suggesting that employment growth will remain too weak to keep up with the increase in the working age population," said Gad Levanon, Associate Director, Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "The disappointing employment numbers may indicate that the low levels of household spending and confidence are making businesses more cautious when it comes to hiring."
July’s rise in the ETI, the 14th straight gain, was driven by positive contributions from six out of the eight components. The improving indicators were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, Job Openings, Industrial Production and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.
The ETI aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the ETI include: Percentage of respondents who say they find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey); Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor); Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation); Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics); Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS); Job Openings (BLS); Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board); and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).
