Chicago Fed Index Drops to Negative 0.46

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's national activity index for November declined to negative 0.46 from a reading of negative 0.25 reading in October.

The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity, and is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.

Overall, 35 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 50 made negative contributions.

While 31 indicators were better than the previous month, 14 of these still made negative contributions to the index. In addition, 54 indicators deteriorated from October to November.

The three-month moving average inched up to negative 0.41 in November, from October's negative 0.42, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.

The November data compares with year-ago readings of 0.01 for the headline index and negative 0.50 for the three-month moving average.

The negative reading for the moving average indicates national economic growth was below its historical trend and signals subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, according to the Chicago Fed.

Production indicators contributed 0.08 in November compared with an October reading of negative 0.02. Employment-related indicators were at a level of negative 0.16, down from 0.10 in October, the Fed said.

Consumption and housing-related data were at negative 0.42 in November and negative 0.40 in October. Sales, orders and inventories contributed 0.04, down from a level 0.07 in October.

The Chicago Fed's national activity index was constructed using data available through Dec. 16.

The Fed used estimates for data that was not yet available for 36 of the 85 indicators.

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