The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July slipped to negative 0.67, from a revised negative 0.59 reading in June, originally reported as negative 0.60.

Meanwhile, the three-month moving average, or CFNAI-MA3, improved to negative 0.80 in July from June’s revised negative 0.94 reading, initially reported as negative 0.93, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported yesterday.

In July 2007, the index was positive 0.09, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.13 in that month.

The negative reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was below its historical trend and suggests little inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year. The July CFNAI-MA3 reading was the eighth straight month the index was below negative 0.70, indicating “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun,” the Fed said.

July’s roduction-related indicators contributed positive 0.02 to the index compared to a contribution of negative 0.03 the month before, while employment-related indicators contributed negative 0.40 after providing a negative 0.32 in June, the Fed said.

Consumption and housing-related data contributed negative 0.24 in July after contributing negative 0.26 the previous month, while sales, orders, and inventories contributed negative 0.05 following a positive 0.02 contribution in June.

Subscribe Now

Independent and authoritative analysis and perspective for the bond buying industry.

14-Day Free Trial

No credit card required. Complete access to articles, breaking news and industry data.