The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August dropped to negative 0.21 from a revised positive 0.26 reading in July, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) fell to 0.07 from a revised 0.20 in July, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In August 2013, the index was 0.22, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.11 in that month.
The July index was originally reported as 0.39, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as 0.25.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was somewhat above its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, slid to 0.14 from a revised 0.23 the month before, first reported as positive 0.31. A year ago, the diffusion index was zero.
The production indicators subtracted 0.17 from CFNAI in the month (compared to a contribution of 0.24 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators were neutral the month, after a 0.10 contribution in July, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.12 in the month, after subtracting 0.13 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.08 in the month, after a contribution of 0.04 in July.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Sept. 18, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 45 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 40 made negative contributions. While 42 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 43 deteriorated from July to August.
