The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August fell to negative 0.41 from a revised positive 0.51 reading in July, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) dipped to 0.01 from a revised 0.02 in July, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Thursday.
In August 2014, the index was negative 0.33, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.16 in that month.
The July index was originally reported as positive 0.34, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as neutral.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was very close to its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, declined to negative 0.09 from a revised positive 0.05 reading the month before, first reported as positive 0.06. A year ago, the diffusion index was positive 0.19.
The production indicators subtracted 0.30 from CFNAI in the month (compared to an addition of 0.36 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators subtracted 0.01 in the month, after a 0.18 contribution in July, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.08 in the month, after subtracting 0.06 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories subtracted 0.03 in the month, after contributing 0.03 in July.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Sept. 18, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 25 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 60 made negative contributions. While 22 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 62 deteriorated from July to August, with one unchanged.
