The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April plunged to negative 0.32 from a revised positive 0.34 reading in March, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) gained to positive 0.19 from a revised positive 0.04 in March, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Thursday.
In April 2013, the index was negative 0.34, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.04 in that month.
The March index was originally reported as positive 0.20, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as neutral.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was slightly above its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, grew to positive 0.18 from a revised positive 0.08 the month before, first reported as positive 0.04.
The production indicators subtracted 0.37 from CFNAI in the month (compared to a contribution of 0.27 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators added 0.17 in the month, after a 0.15 contribution in March, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.12 in the month, after subtracting 0.07 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories was neutral in the month, after a subtraction of 0.01 in March.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by May 20, with data for 49 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 34 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 51 made negative contributions. While 37 indicators were better than the previous month, 15 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 47 deteriorated from March to April.
