Finance

The Federal Reserve will be more cautious and slow rate cuts going forward, according to minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, released Wednesday.

Pressing issues like the shifts in banking teams at various firms following Citi's exit from the business to major ratings changes make the ranking.

"Further Treasury rate volatility or distractions from more favorable alternatives could at the very least moderate money invested into the municipal bond market," DWS strategists said. However, "these dynamics could create periods of opportunity to buy tax-exempt bonds at attractive yields in 2025."

"These opportunities will surface periodically throughout the year against heavy supply and the increasingly uncertain path for the Fed, evolving fiscal policy, and volatile Treasury market backdrop," said J.P. Morgan strategists.

Heavy redemptions and coupon payments this month should help "stabilize" the market, said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

BRIDGE Housing Corp. is the first to publicly offer tax-exempt bonds to finance construction of a new development, a 224-unit project in Portland, Oregon.

Investors pulled more from municipal bond mutual funds in the final reporting week of 2024, but high-yield reverted to inflows to close out the year, adding to the sector's outperformance overall.

Westchester County, New York, plans to issue roughly $189 million in general obligation bonds, with Fitch Ratings giving the debt its top rating of AAA.

While municipals have outperformed USTs on the whole in 2024, they will close December with losses. How taxables perform in early 2025 coupled with macroeconomic and Washington policy uncertainty have municipal market participants on edge for what lies ahead.

Both IG and HY indices will likely end this year richer versus USTs and their benchmarks, "leaving very little cushion to absorb rate volatility," said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

San Francisco's "tepid" recovery from the pandemic was cited by Fitch.

While Friday's muni session was muted, the damage of a volatile UST market, paired with low new-issue supply and year-end positioning, has weighed on the asset class in December.

High-yield funds saw outflows of $413.6 million compared to the previous week's outflows of $71 million.

In the remaining days of this year, "taxable rates continue to be pressured but munis are finding a stable, even supportive, bidside," said Kim Olsan, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Moody's Ratings said the 2025 budget that passed Chicago's City Council this month won't materially alter the credit profile of the city, which it rates Baa3.

Munis "continued their slide" last week as yields rose an average of 23 basis points across the curve as the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Fed will take a "more cautious approach" on interest rate cuts next year, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

The budgeting constraints transformed the state's finances and bond ratings. But critics say the policy's downsides include the stifling of needed investments. 

Municipals are seeing losses of 1.82% in December, which has dragged down overall gains to just 0.68% for 2024, per the Bloomberg Municipal Index.

The bank's termination of its membership in the Net-Zero Banking Alliance ended a state review that could have led to a ban for governmental contracts.

Indianapolis-based Sycamore Advisors is building its quantitative muscle with two new experienced municipal finance hires in New York: Peter Orr and Ching Yin.