Gary Siegel

Given the Fed's reluctance to "surprise markets or take actions that could be perceived as overtly political," Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick said, "we find it hard to believe that anything other than 25 bp is the likely outcome for the upcoming FOMC meeting."

"The numbers are weak, but not cusp of recession weak," Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, said.

"Fed watchers will be parsing Powell's comments for signs that a 50bp rate cut is on the table for September," noted Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics. "However, the notoriously tight-lipped chair is unlikely to confirm this, making a 25bp cut the most likely outcome."

Economists expect the FOMC to hold rates, although some say there's a case to be made for a July cut, with Fed Chair Powell setting the table for September.

The Philadelphia Fed president said there can be as few as no cuts or as many as two this year, but if his projections are accurate, one decrease would be appropriate this year.

With no change in rates expected, analysts are interested in the dot plot and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

"The Fed is certainly not going to be overly concerned about the growth backdrop" at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, said BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter.

Analysts ponder what the Fed will do this year with a March cut ruled out amid recent reports of higher-than-expected inflation.

The discussion of rate cuts, both timing and amount, has analysts offering varying estimates.

Musalem, an economist, is a former executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.