Gary Siegel

Look back on all three previous classes of our Hall of Fame of municipal finance as we begin accepting nominations for a fourth.

With no policy changes expected, analysts are eagerly awaiting the new Summary of Economic Projections for clues about future monetary policy.

The Fed is expected to hold steady. RBC's Blake Gwinn breaks down the forces driving the Fed's future decision-making and what it means for markets.

"There are a lot of moving parts here with the potential to either help or hinder the Fed's quest for price stability and maximum employment" this year, noted BMO Deputy Chief Economist Michael Gregory, who says the Fed will "stand pat."

Although a new administration means policy uncertainty, most analysts see the economy growing above trend next year, although inflation will remain a concern.

Analysts are unsure what the Federal Open Market Committee will do with monetary policy in 2025. The panel projects two rate cuts, but some analysts expect more, and others see fewer.

Analysts are confident the Fed will lower rates at this week's meeting, but their views on what next year holds don't share the same consensus.

Voters were asked to consider at least $148.912 billion of bonds this year in 908 ballot referendums, according to data compiled by Bond Buyer.

While this meeting is a slam dunk, the election and data makes the December meeting more of a question, some analysts said.

Given the Fed's reluctance to "surprise markets or take actions that could be perceived as overtly political," Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick said, "we find it hard to believe that anything other than 25 bp is the likely outcome for the upcoming FOMC meeting."

"The numbers are weak, but not cusp of recession weak," Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, said.

"Fed watchers will be parsing Powell's comments for signs that a 50bp rate cut is on the table for September," noted Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics. "However, the notoriously tight-lipped chair is unlikely to confirm this, making a 25bp cut the most likely outcome."

Economists expect the FOMC to hold rates, although some say there's a case to be made for a July cut, with Fed Chair Powell setting the table for September.

The Philadelphia Fed president said there can be as few as no cuts or as many as two this year, but if his projections are accurate, one decrease would be appropriate this year.

With no change in rates expected, analysts are interested in the dot plot and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

"The Fed is certainly not going to be overly concerned about the growth backdrop" at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, said BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter.

Analysts ponder what the Fed will do this year with a March cut ruled out amid recent reports of higher-than-expected inflation.

The discussion of rate cuts, both timing and amount, has analysts offering varying estimates.

Musalem, an economist, is a former executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

COVID made predicting the economic future even more difficult. While calls for a recession and rate cuts for this year didn't pan out, here's what experts see for 2024.