Puerto Rico Economic Activity Index Down 0.3%

Puerto Rico's economic activity index fell 0.3% in June from May.

The index in June was down 0.4% from a year earlier.

The index is determined by four economic measures, of which one rose, two declined, and one was even compared with June 2014. The Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico compiles the index.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was even in June compared to June 2014.

In the same period electric power generation dropped 1.8% and gasoline consumption slid 7.8%, though the latter is based on preliminary figures.

The volume of cement sold increased 1% year over year in June.

The index provides a monthly measure of the island's economic activity. The GNP figure is announced only once a year while the index is announced monthly. Because of this, the index is followed closely as an indicator of the health of the island's economy.

Additionally, GDB uses the index to make predictions about the island's real gross national product. From fiscal year 2006 to fiscal year 2014 the index has averaged a per year 2.09% decline. This has led the GDB to predict that in this period, real GNP would shrink an average of 1.04% per year. In reality the real GNP has fallen an average of 1.48% during this period.

In the latest announcement the GDB announced that it was predicting that fiscal year 2015, which ended July 1, would show an inflation-adjusted -0.7% GNP real contraction. The Puerto Rico Planning Board hasn't yet announced its estimate of the actual change.

 

 

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