WASHINGTON — September durables orders posted a 1.3% decline, as ex transportation slid 0.2%, and ex defense fell 1.5%. This is a second monthly drop for each, suggesting manufacturing weakened somewhat.
This result was worse than the median estimate but there was a significant minority calling for this drop. So it was within the broader range of expectations, which was affected by accounting for aircraft.
Boeing Corp. reported a 15% gain in its orders during the month but nondefense aircraft orders in the official report were down 16.1%. Unadjusted aircraft orders were up $3.7 billion, but due to severe seasonal adjustment this was turned into a subtraction.
Nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft orders posted a 1.7% decline, its worst showing since January 2014's 1.9% drop. Even after this, winter 2014's softening turned into a subsequent rebound, suggesting it will take a few more months to determine if the overall manufacturing sector is slowing.
Orders weakness in September centered in a 2.8% decrease for machinery and a 2.5% slide for computers. Primary metals gained 2.2% and electronics 1.8%.
Nondefense capital goods shipments posted a 0.5% increase and are up for Q3, suggesting capital spending increased.
Overall shipments were up 0.1%, and inventories up 0.4%. A classic manufacturing slowdown might show a far worse inventory overhang.
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