Midwest Growth Below Trend in June: Chicago Fed

The Midwest Economy Index narrowed to negative 0.13 in June from a revised negative 0.16 in May, first reported as negative 0.18, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.

The relative MEI improved to negative 0.07 in June from a downwardly revised negative 0.64 in May, first reported as negative 0.51. The negative relative MEI indicates that growth in the region was slightly lower than expected.

Manufacturing contributed 0.06 to the index in June, after a 0.15 addition in May, while adding 0.06 to the relative MEI, after a 0.02 subtraction in May.

Construction and mining took 0.21 from MEI in the month, after subtracting 0.17 in May, while subtracting 0.17 from relative MEI in June after taking 0.14 from the index in May.

The service sector subtracted 0.06 from MEI in June after taking 0.17 the prior month, while taking 0.08 from relative MEI after subtracting 0.49 in May.

Consumer spending contributed 0.07 to MEI, after adding 0.03 in May, while adding 0.12 to relative MEI, after a 0.02 contribution in May.

By state, Iowa made the largest contributions in June, 0.15, with Michigan adding 0.01, Indiana was neutral, Illinois took away 0.10, and Wisconsin subtracted 0.17.

The index is a weighted average of 128 state and regional indicators encompassing the five states in the Seventh Federal Reserve District (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin). The index measures growth in nonfarm business activity.

A zero value for the MEI indicates that the Midwest economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth. A zero value for the relative MEI indicates that the Midwest economy is growing at a rate historically consistent with the growth of the national economy; positive values indicate above-average relative growth; and negative values indicate below-average relative growth.

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