The California economy will not resume normal growth until mid-2011, according the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast.
“The economy will begin to pick up slightly in the beginning of 2011, and by the middle of 2011, will begin to grow at more normal levels,” said senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg.
He said exports of manufactured and agricultural goods, a recovery in the U.S. economy, increased public works construction and increased investment in business equipment and software will lead the slow California recovery.
Nickelsburg forecast that total employment will contract by 4.3% in 2009, and the state will not create new jobs in 2010. Employment will grow 1.7% in 2011, finally helping to reduce joblessness, which is expected to rise to 12.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009. He doesn’t expect the unemployment rate to fall below 10% until 2012.
“Unemployment is only going to get worse,” the report said. “Though the economy will be growing in 2011, it will not be generating enough jobs to drive the unemployment rate below double digits.”
