Monetary policy

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he favored more monetary policy tightening to reduce persistently high inflation, although he said he was prepared to adjust his stance if needed if credit tightens more than expected.

Federal Reserve policymakers scaled back their expectations for rate hikes this year after a series of bank collapses roiled markets last month, and stressed they would remain vigilant for the potential of a credit crunch to further slow the economy, a record of the meeting showed.

Outflows continued as Refinitiv Lipper reported $427.082 million was pulled from municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Wednesday after $461.123 million of outflows the week prior.

"In short, it appears that the end of the current tightening cycle is coming into view," said Wells Fargo Securities Chief Economist Jay Bryson.

Members of the Fed learned the wrong lesson from bizarrely focusing on the 1970s when they said "If history has taught us anything, it's to not let up too soon on inflation."

The reverberations from the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures make the outcome of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting unpredictable.

The recent bank failures have changed market thinking about the Federal Reserve's next move.

Disruptions and dislocations associated with more volatile business cycles have already created opportunities for active fixed income management, as the dramatic interest rate increase of 2022 illustrates.

The Federal Reserve said further interest-rate hikes would be required to restore price stability.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic called for continued interest-rate hikes to above 5% ensure that inflation returns to the central bank's target and doesn't reaccelerate in a pattern similar to the 1970s.