FOMC

A discussion about raising interest rates is still quite a ways off as the Federal Reserve begins debating tapering its bond-buying program, New York Fed President John Williams said.

John Hallacy, founder of John Hallacy Consulting LLC, talks with Chip Barnett about the pandemic’s lingering credit impacts on state finances in a wide-ranging discussion of the many issues affecting the municipal market today. (17 minutes)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve.

The short end of the yield curve faced pressure from a cheaper UST five-year. As the flattening trend in UST takes hold, demand for duration will also spill over into the tax-exempt space, with long-dated munis continuing to outperform, analysts say.

The Investment Company Institute on Wednesday reported $2.533 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds, the highest since February.

Most analysts expect the Federal Open Market Committee will alter its Summary of Economic Projections and perhaps begin to talk about tapering, without offering clues when they'll begin cutting back on asset purchases.

Yields on top-quality munis were flat on the AAA scales Friday; yields were seven to nine basis points lower on the week.

“We have to be careful in removing accommodation so that we don’t create any kind of ‘taper tantrum,’ ” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said.

Randal Quarles left open the possibility that he might remain in his role as a Federal Reserve governor after his tenure as vice chair for supervision expires on Oct. 13 — a move that would reduce the openings for the Biden administration to fill.

Municipal yields will likely stay in a narrow range with trading activity subdued unless larger interest rate volatility unexpectedly sets in, analysts say.

The Federal Reserve’s prestigious annual Jackson Hole policy symposium will be held in person this year, albeit in a modified form.

U.S. central bank officials may be able to begin discussing the appropriate timing of scaling back their bond-buying program at upcoming policy meetings, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said.

Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, says he hears frequent speculation that he could be nominated to lead the central bank.

Factors pushing U.S. inflation higher are likely to ebb at the start of 2022, said Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly.

The Federal Reserve should get a conversation going on tapering its bond-purchase program “sooner rather than later,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said.

The Investment Company Institute reported another week of inflows, but at a lower clip than recent weeks with $541 million coming into municipal bond mutual funds.

The Federal Reserve’s policy is in a good place right now, said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, while playing down signals from data that she warns will be volatile as the economy reopens.

The U.S. labor market remains in a “deep hole” and needs aggressive support to speed its healing from the COVID-19 pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.

It will probably take “quite some time” for Federal Reserve officials to conclude the economy has made substantial progress following Friday’s disappointing jobs report, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he has “zero sympathy” for critics on Wall Street, who slam the central bank’s aggressive support of the U.S. economy while millions of Americans remain out of work.