Yields Keep Falling as One-Year Index Hits Record Low

The Bond Buyer’s weekly yield indexes again fell this week, extending a string of declines seen over several weeks and recording an all-time low on the one-year index.

“The market continues to feel quite strong,” said Evan Rourke, portfolio manager at MD Sass. “We are seeing a little more action a little further out the

curve, around 15 to 20 years, because there’s a little more yield pickup, and you’re starting to see some of that flatten again as people chase that. The long end of the curve is stuck a little bit at 4% for the moment. But the whole market has a pretty nice feel to it right now.”

The Bond Buyer 20-bond index of 20-year general obligation bond yields declined 16 basis points this week to 4.04%. This is the lowest level for the index since Dec. 7, 2006, when it was 4.03%. The index has declined six consecutive weeks, for a cumulative drop of 61 basis points from its most recent high of 4.65% on Aug. 13.

The 11-bond index of higher-grade 20-year GO yields declined 14 basis points this week to 3.79%, which is the lowest the index has been since May 11, 1967, when it was also 3.79%. The index has fallen six straight weeks, for a total decline of 59 basis points from its most recent high of 4.38% on Aug. 13.

The revenue bond index, which measures 30-year revenue bond yields, dropped 12 basis points this week to 4.86%. This is the lowest the index has been since Feb. 14, 2008, when it was 4.82%. The index has dropped seven weeks in a row, for a cumulative decline of 82 basis points from its most recent high of 5.68% on Aug. 6.

The 10-year Treasury note yield declined two basis points this week, to 3.38%, but it remained above its 3.34% level from two weeks ago. The 30-year Treasury bond dropped one basis point this week, to 4.17%, which is its lowest level since Sept. 3, when it was 4.15%.

The Bond Buyer one-year note index, which is based on one-year tax-exempt note yields, dropped four basis points this week to an all-time low of 0.56%. The previous record low of 0.58% was set on May 27. The index began on July 12, 1989.

The weekly average of the yield to maturity for The Bond Buyer Municipal Bond Index declined eight basis points this week to 5.04%. That is the ­lowest weekly average for the yield to maturity since the week ending May 15, 2008, when it was 5.01%. The weekly average has declined eight straight weeks, for a cumulative decline of 55 basis points from the most recent high of 5.59% for the week ended July 30.

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