The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September improved to negative 0.37 from a revised negative 0.39 reading in August, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) dipped to negative 0.09 from an unrevised positive 0.01 in August, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Thursday.
In September 2014, the index was positive 0.19, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.12 in that month.
The August index was originally reported as negative 0.41, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as 0.01.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was slightly below its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, declined to negative 0.17 from a revised negative 0.04 reading the month before, first reported as negative 0.09. A year ago, the diffusion index was positive 0.12.
The production indicators subtracted 0.18 from CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.21 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators subtracted 0.11 in the month, after a 0.08 subtraction in August, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.08 in the month, after subtracting 0.06 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories made a neutral contribution after subtracting 0.03 in August.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Oct. 20, with data for 49 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 26 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 59 made negative contributions. While 42 indicators were better than the previous month, 25 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 42 deteriorated from August to September, with one unchanged.
