Economic growth should be stronger than expected for the next three quarters but should slow down toward year-end, with 2.7% average annual growth for the next five quarters, according to 42 professional forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The forecasters see 3.0% growth this year, better than the 2.4% projected earlier, with 2.9% gross domestic product growth in 2011, 3.4% in 2012, and 3.1% in 2013. It also offers good news on jobs, with projections of 9.8% unemployment this year, 9.2% next year, 8.3% in 2012, and 7.3% in 2013. Inflation projections are near those in the prior survey.
“Over the next 10 years, 2010 to 2019, the forecasters expect headline [consumer price index] inflation to average 2.39% at an annual rate. This estimate is up from the last survey, when the forecasters thought headline CPI inflation over the 10-year period from 2009 to 2018 would average 2.26%. The 10-year outlook for [personal consumption expenditure] inflation is unchanged.”
