Market Post: Munis Hit the Snooze Button After Incredible Week

NEW YORK — The muni market decided to sleep in Friday morning. Traders noted little activity after so dramatic a week of bond-grabbing in both the primary and secondary markets.

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Muni yields appear to be holding this week’s gains. They are steady across the curve to start Friday’s session, according to the Municipal Market Data scale.

The benchmark 10-year yield skipped down three basis points Thursday to 1.97%. It has fallen 61 basis points since Oct. 12, and equals the lowest point it’s reached in 2011 — a level it last saw on Sept. 23.

The tumble lowered its ratio to Treasuries to 100% from 106.37% three days ago, considerably closer to the 2011 calendar-year average of 97.26%.

The muni-Treasury ratio has gotten richer recently, falling 18 percentage points in 10 sessions since Nov. 23, and 28 percentage points from its calendar-year high of 128.42%, achieved on Oct. 5.

The two-year muni yield held fast at 0.36% for a second straight session. The 30-year ticked down one basis point to 3.69%.

Treasury yields started the day’s session tentative, lethargic, and mixed. The benchmark 10-year yield inched up a basis point to 1.98%.

The two-year yield held steady at 0.23%. The 30-year yield skipped down one basis point to 2.99%.

Investors flooded municipal bond mutual funds with cash this past week. Muni bond funds saw their heaviest inflows since March 10, 2010.

The week ending Dec. 7 saw about $1.04 billion in inflows from muni bond funds that report their flows weekly, according to Lipper FMI. In the week ending Nov. 30, there were net outflows of $297 million.

High-yield muni funds saw inflows this past week, as well, after two straight weeks of outflows.

Funds that report weekly saw inflows of $56.5 million, Lipper said. The previous week, high-yield funds reported outflows of $133 million.

Finally, the muni market is now officially larger by $840 billion. That’s because the Federal Reserve in its third quarter data on fund flows released on Thursday raised the total amount of muni bonds outstanding to $3.7 trillion, retroactive to the first quarter 2004. Previously, it had calculated the total at roughly $2.9 trillion.

The Fed attributed the difference to a recalculation of individual holdings of municipal bonds. This revision increases the amount of individual holdings to 51% of total bonds outstanding, Janney Capital Markets’ Alan Schankel wrote in a research post.

“If mutual funds and similar products are included, the amount of individual holdings jumps to $2.8 billion or 75% of outstanding munis,” Schankel wrote. “No other major asset class has such high percentages of individual ownership.”


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