NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 1.1% in November, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI was revised to a 0.4% increase in October, originally reported as a 0.5% rise.
The coincident index grew 0.1% in November, after a revised 0.2% increase in October, originally reported as a 0.1% rise, while the lagging index fell 0.1% after a revised flat reading in October, originally reported as a 0.1% gain.
The LEI stands at 112.4, the coincident index is at 101.7 and the lagging index is at 108.6. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 1.1% in the month.
“The U.S. economy is showing some sparks of life in late 2010,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “Overall, the indicators point to a mild pickup after a slow winter. Looking further out, possible clouds on the medium-term horizon include weaknesses in housing and employment.”
“November’s sharp increase in the LEI, the fifth consecutive gain, is an early sign that the expansion is gaining momentum and spreading,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “Nearly all components rose in November. Continuing strength in financial indicators is now joined by gains in manufacturing and consumer expectations, but housing remains weak.”
Nine of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in November: index of supplier deliveries, interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, real money supply, stock prices, index of consumer expectations, average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods. Building permits was negative.
The coincident index saw industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, employment, and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month.
The lagging index saw positives from change in CPI for services and average duration of unemployment. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in labor cost per unit of output in manufacturing, and ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
