NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators slid 0.2% in June, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI was revised to up 0.5% in May, originally reported as a 0.4% jump.
The coincident index was flat in June, after a revised 0.5% increase in May, originally reported as a 0.4% hike, while the lagging index rose 0.1% after an unrevised 0.1% decline in May.
The LEI stands at 109.8, the coincident index is at 101.4 and the lagging index is at 107.6.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be down 0.3% in the month.
“The indicators point to slower growth through the fall,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “Two trends will have a direct impact on the pace of economic expansion. First, improvement in the industrial core of the economy will moderate as inventory rebuilding slows. Second, improvement in the service sector has been relatively slow, with little indication that it will pick up momentum.”
“The LEI decreased in two of the last three months, but its level is still about 4.5% above its previous peak before the recession began,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “Moreover, the gains among the LEI components have been widespread, with the exception of housing permits and stock prices, pointing to an expanding economy, but at a slower pace in the second half of the year.”
Half of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in June: interest rate spread, real money supply, building permits, index of consumer expectations, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries, stock prices, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance were negative. Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods was flat.
The coincident index saw personal income less transfer payments, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales all rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls was negative.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and change in labor cost per unit of output. Average duration of unemployment, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, change in CPI for services, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
