The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June improved to negative 0.60 from a revised negative 1.06 reading in May, originally reported as negative 0.96.
Meanwhile, the three-month moving average decreased to negative 0.93 in June after May’s unrevised negative 1.08 reading, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported yesterday.
In June 2007, the index was negative 0.19 and the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.22.
The negative reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was below its historical trend and suggests little inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year. The June CFNAI-MA3 reading was the seventh month the index was below negative 0.70, indicating “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun,” the Chicago Fed said.