The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June gained to positive 0.34 from a revised negative 0.07 reading in June, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) climbed to neutral level from a revised negative 0.08 in June, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In June 2014, the index was positive 0.50, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.30 in that month.
The June index was originally reported as positive 0.08, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as negative 0.01.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was at its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, rose to 0.06 from a revised neutral reading the month before, first reported as positive 0.07. A year ago, the diffusion index was positive 0.33.
The production indicators added 0.28 to CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.14 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators added 0.11 in the month, after a 0.11 contribution in June, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.06 in the month, after subtracting 0.10 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.01 in the month, after contributing 0.06 in June.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Aug. 20, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 50 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 35 made negative contributions. While 44 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 40 deteriorated from June to July, with one unchanged.
