The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January climbed to positive 0.28 from a revised negative 0.34 reading in December, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) narrowed to negative 0.15 from a downwardly revised negative 0.30 in December, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In January 2015, the index was negative 0.14, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.20 in that month.
The December index was originally reported as negative 0.22, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as negative 0.24.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was somewhat below its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, narrowed to negative 0.11 from a revised negative 0.17 reading the month before, first reported as negative 0.13. A year ago, the diffusion index was positive 0.19.
The production indicators contributed 0.27 to CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.38 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators added 0.12 in the month, after a 0.16 contribution in December, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.08 in the month, after subtracting 0.08 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories subtracted 0.03 in the month after taking 0.04 from the index in December.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Feb. 18, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 39 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 46 made negative contributions. While 45 indicators were better than the previous month, 14 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 39 deteriorated from December to January and one was flat.
